2024 Electoral Analysis — São Paulo Mayoral Candidates and the Rio Grande do Sul Disaster

Academic project developed at FAPCOM in collaboration with the newspaper Estadão, analyzing the positioning of São Paulo’s mayoral pre-candidates in response to the climate disaster in Rio Grande do Sul during the 2024 pre-election period.

The mixed-methods research mapped 41 articles published by Estadão between May 1 and 8, examining how each candidate — Guilherme Boulos, Ricardo Nunes, Tabata Amaral, and Marina Helena — was portrayed in relation to the floods that devastated two-thirds of municipalities in the state, and what that coverage meant for each candidate’s public image.

Challenges

Combining journalistic coverage data with political positioning analysis amid an active humanitarian crisis, evaluating not just the volume of media appearances, but the quality and tone of the actions attributed to each candidate — and what those revealed about the relationship between crisis management, public empathy, and electoral image-building.

Results

A structured analysis covering data collection, organization, and interpretation, showing that candidates who took practical humanitarian action and put forward concrete legislative proposals received more positive media coverage, with a direct impact on public perception at a politically sensitive moment.